Homewood, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

734
FXUS64 KBMX 280515
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025

 - There is high chance for dangerous heat conditions to continue
   through Wednesday. This will be a long-duration period of
   extreme heat conditions with no overnight relief, affecting
   people and pets without adequate cooling and hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025

Broad mid to upper level ridging extended from over the Southern
High Plains east to over much of the Southeast Atlantic Coastline.
Surface high pressure extended from across the Southern Mid
Atlantic states southwest to across the Lower Mississippi River
Valley Region.

Expect the expansive mid to upper level ridging to become
centered over the ArkLaTex Region on Monday with surface high
pressure migrating west across the area, becoming centered across
Coastal Southwest Louisiana by Monday Afternoon. Surface troughing
will develop with time across the Southeast Atlantic Coastline by
late in the afternoon. On Tuesday, the mid to upper level ridging
will start to contract in size, extending from over the Southern
Rockies eastward toward the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Surface high
pressure will continue drifting west, becoming centered across
East-Central Texas Tuesday morning as diffuse surface troughing
persists across Southeast Georgia and Coastal South Carolina.

Heat concerns will remain the focus of the short-term portion of
the forecast as chances for mainly afternoon into early evening
showers and thunderstorms will be isolated (15-30%) in coverage
with the highest chances across the northern third of the forecast
area on Monday, followed by an increase in activity Tuesday with
isolated (35-45%) chances northwest with scattered (50-70%)
chances across the southeast half of the area. Some of the
thunderstorms may be heavy or strong Tuesday due to strong low-
level instability.

Heat stress will continue to accumulate through the short-term
time frame with overnight lows tonight in the mid 70s areawide,
followed by high temperatures from the lower 90s in the higher
terrain east to readings in the mid to upper 90s south and west on
Monday. The combination of heat and persistent humid conditions
will create maximum heat index values from the upper 90s in the
higher terrain far east to readings around 105 west. Lows Monday
night will remain in the mid 70s with a few pockets of upper 70s
possible near metro areas then daytime highs ranging from the
lower 90s in the higher terrain east to the mid to upper 90s
across much of the rest of the area on Tuesday. Heat index values
will range from around 100 in the higher elevations to readings
around 107 across the west, making Tuesday the most miserable day
for heat index readings this week.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025

The mid to upper level ridging becomes elongated and contracts in
size Wednesday, extending from over much of Texas northeast to
over much of the Southern Ohio River Valley Region. Surface high
pressure builds across South-Central Canada and will force a
surface cold front southeast across much of the Central Plains and
Midwest toward the Ohio River during the day on Wednesday. Closer
to home, surface high pressure continues to persist across much
of Texas with weak surface troughing across the area. On Thursday,
a mid-level weakness develops over the area as ridging becomes
centered over West-Central Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Strong
surface high pressure builds southeast into the Northern Plains on
Thursday, driving the cold front further south across the Ozarks
and into Northern Tennessee and Southern Kentucky later in the day
while weak troughing also persists to along the Central Gulf
Coast and Lower Mississippi River Valley Regions. A mid-level
weakness becomes more pronounced by Friday with the subtropical
ridging rebuilding over much of Florida and Coastal Georgia while
the ridging to our west persists over much of Texas. Expansive
surface high pressure becomes centered across Northern Wisconsin
Friday morning as the surface cold front moves into the state from
the north, becoming positioned roughly along the U.S. Highway 278
corridor by late morning. Longwave troughing moves southeast out
from over the Northern Great Lakes to over the Northeast on
Saturday while a mid-level weakness persists over our area on
Saturday before mid-level broad troughing develops over the
Midwest and moves southeast over the Mid Mississippi River Valley
Region and approaches the Mid-South and Northern Tennessee Valley
Region on Sunday. The surface front decelerates across the central
portion of the area Saturday as surface high pressure migrates
east across the Eastern Great Lakes. The surface front looks to
stall just south of the forecast area on Sunday while strong
surface high pressure becomes centered across Northeast
Pennsylvania.

Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday with scattered (60-80%) chances for activity across much
of the forecast area. This pattern will persist through late week
with scattered (50-80%) chances across the area Thursday with
greatest potential northwest of Interstate 20. Expect scattered
(55-70%) chances for showers and storms Friday followed by some
reduction in activity northwest on Saturday with isolated (40-50%)
chances far northwest with scattered (60-80%) activity elsewhere
and maximized in the southeast. PoPs on Sunday will range from
isolated (45-50%) north and west to scattered (55-70%) activity
across the southeast half of the area.

Some heat relief will result with the increased rain and storm
chances each day then with the arrival of the cold front toward
this weekend. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 70s areawide
followed by highs Wednesday from around 90 in the higher
elevations to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Lows will be in the
mid 70s across the area Wednesday night with highs Thursday from
around 90 in the higher terrain east to the lower 90s elsewhere.
Lows Thursday night will range from the lower 70s north with mid
70s common south and central. Highs Friday will range from around
90 across the north and central counties with readings in the
lower 90s across the southern third of the area. Lows Friday night
will range fro around 70 across the northern third of the area
with readings in the lower 70s elsewhere. Highs Saturday will
range from the mid 80s in the higher terrain east due to the
northeast flow from wedging effects with high pressure well to our
northeast to readings around 90 along and south of the U.S.
Highway 80 corridor. Lows Saturday night will range from the upper
60s across the far north and northeast to readings in the lower
70s south and southwest with daytime highs Sunday from around 80
in the higher terrain east to readings in the mid 80s far south
and far west.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with some limited MVFR
conditions at KTCL due to some reduction in visibility now through
14z. Scattered cumulus will develop by late morning Monday with a
few showers and storms developing during the afternoon, but
potential was too low to introduce prob30 for all sites except BHM
and ASN from 18z through 00z

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND continues at MGM until further
notice due to lingering comms issues.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot conditions will persist through Tuesday, followed by some
heat relief later in the work week with increasing chances for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High low-level
humidity will keep RH values well above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  74  97  74 /  30  20  50  30
Anniston    93  75  94  74 /  30  20  60  40
Birmingham  95  76  97  76 /  30  20  50  30
Tuscaloosa  95  77  95  76 /  20  20  50  30
Calera      94  77  94  76 /  20  20  60  30
Auburn      94  77  94  75 /  20  20  60  40
Montgomery  96  77  96  75 /  20  20  60  50
Troy        95  75  95  74 /  20  20  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties:
Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Barbour-Chambers-Cherokee-Lee-Russell.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05